do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

The empirical analysis also confirmed that the basin losses a total of about 89.6 Mt of soil annually. These are valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the dams and plan medicinal estimates identified with sedimentation issues. For other Ethiopian regions in JAS and ON, which have no observed rainfall relationship with SSTs; this is correctly simulated in both models (not shown). For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. 2.2. 0000089208 00000 n conditions results in ample thermal differences (Fig. most important factors. The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. The observed strong negative rainfall teleconnections with the equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model. It usually occurs at altitudes < 2,000 m above sea level. In the past, the Basic descriptive statistics for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature based on decades from 1961 to 2015. Observed SSTs from the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1.1) data set at 11 resolution, described by Rayner et al. ZJWH%D1` }+@XX# m ^ g05C4q| |Fw The warm/cool SST anomaly over the South Atlantic Ocean is associated with reduced/enhanced westerly and southwesterly wind flow to Ethiopia, which in turn is linked with reduced/enhanced JJAS moisture flux into Ethiopia, then linked with below/above normal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 28:16271638. 3. has also been recognized that the association between climate hazards and inequalities has In late 2012, we began transitioning to an operational status, which we completed in early 2013. 1). This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). endstream endobj 169 0 obj <>stream (2003), were used. Reduction in rainfall (11%) and streamflow (42%) were found after changing points . Pitfalls Of Buying Property In Costa Rica, 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. 0000007328 00000 n Only Diro et al. doi:10.1002/joc.3711, Hastenrath S, Nicklis A, Greishar L (1993) Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! [13] also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall regimes across the dry tropical regions. If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! Globally, climate change is one of the most important environmental issues and challenges of the twenty-first century (UNFCCC 2007).Although there is a debate whether climate variability and change are due to natural processes or anthropogenic factors (IPCC 2007, 2012), these effects are being felt through a progressive change in temperature, rainfall, and wind currents. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. 2009a, b; Diro et al. " /> The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. For our study, we considered the rainfall data for the period 19551995 to maintain the quality of data because in the early twentieth century some stations had not been established, and from the end of the twentieth century some stations had ceased reporting or their data was not readily available. 2009a, b). Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream The SST correlations with MAM and ON rainfalls (not shown here) are not significant. In contrast, the pattern of correlations for September is quite different, and that for December is statistically insignificant. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.169, Article Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. Climate Projections and Impacts Refer to the Climate Risk Profile (2016) for more information Climate Projections Increased Frequency/Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changes to Season Duration/ Seasonal Precipitation Increased Temperature Key Climate Impact Areas Agriculture Livestock Human Health Water Funding and Key Indicators Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. Hampton Bay Cabinets Gallery, (Note that Rowell did not analyse MAM and JAS teleconnections to GHA.) We find there are three distinct rainfall seasons in Ethiopia with their specific SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns. 0000003134 00000 n (p = 0.008), monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013) and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040), at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. However, the physical mechanism for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean and Ethiopian rainfall is explained by Segele et al. 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. 0000001853 00000 n We found that both the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 models are capable of simulating the first-order shape of the Ethiopian climatological annual rainfall cycles and the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall, but with varying errors in representing the rainfall amount. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. Conf. Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. 0000009445 00000 n Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. The regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel. Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. Even in the hottest months (March to May), average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius). Throughout the year, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and frosty mornings are common. In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995. Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low . In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). The SST-to-rainfall associations for the MarchMay (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) seasons, which are the main and secondary rainfall seasons over southern Ethiopia, respectively, are much less well understood. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS IN CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY, ETHIOPIA | Climate change impacts people's livelihoods climate change impacts ecosystem services how do people . Also, this region is known for its dry climate during this season. 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). In this study, the trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. 0000152505 00000 n Then by visual inspection of the similarity of these teleconnection patterns and magnitudes (see Sect. Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. . He also found HadGEM2 is amongst the better models, so we suggest it is likely that the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 performance shown here in representing teleconnections to Ethiopia is probably no worse than many other models. 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. Ethiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { xref Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. 1.1). 2011). Its extant relative, Papio anubis, is omnivorous and moves easily on the ground and in trees. Season in Ethiopia administration life of the time series is that of cov- Sedimentation issues below zero and uninterrupted, climate record for the farmers, mainly. To do so, a quasi-objective method was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. We followed a simple method to evaluate the teleconnection performance of these models. La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . Projected change in the intensity (mm/day) of rainfall on a . Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. This study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia. Compared with HadGEM2, the HadGEM3-GA3.0 model greatly overestimates the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern and eastern Ethiopia. 0000013689 00000 n http://clearinghouse5.fgdc.gov/enraemed/NMSA. 0000004484 00000 n It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. 0000088798 00000 n For the JAS (Kiremt) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount over northwestern Ethiopia for which JAS is the main rainfall season. (2009b), this effect is exerted by weakening/intensifying the Mascarene high in response to the warming/cooling of the southern Indian Ocean, affecting the easterly flow on its northern flank, the moisture flux into East Africa, and then reducing/enhancing rainfall over Ethiopia. 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. 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. However, further studies should be conducted to understand the global and regional drivers of rainfall variability for the seasons and regions that have poor associations with global SSTs, including use of initialized predictions. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. Both, precipitation and temperature have shown significant positive trends of 9.7 10 2 /yr and 2.7 10 2 /yr respectively over the study region from 1982 to 2015. The model teleconnection plots presented here are only those for JAS for CW-Ethiopia and ON for S-Ethiopia, where the observed rainfall data show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. The warming trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures for Basona Werana and Efratana Gidim, respectively, are statistically significant at p = .05 and p = .01 levels. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. } Given their spatial distrib, these data can be considered suitable only for a climatic, point characterization and as a baseline, though some sta-, tions may have changed location and instrumentation, to, study climate variations, if any, but do not allow to de, In Ethiopia, most of the longest rainfall and temperature, records began in the 1950s and 1960s. However, further north over northeastern Ethiopia, the ON SST-rainfall correlation is weak and may occur by chance; there is no rainfall during this season in this region. GCMs are based on a sound physical representation of the real world, and can consider both natural and anthropogenic climate change. Mekonnen Adnew Degefu. doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. Basic climatic parameters such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind, evapotranspiration, and aridity are considered and their spatial distribution is analyzed. Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. In October and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans (Black et al. Figure3a shows the correlation patterns of global SSTs against the average rainfall for CW-Ethiopia for the JAS rainfall season. This may be because a threshold resolution has not been crossed, which might improve the regional climatology either by resolving important orographic features or by improving the scale interactions of relevant local dynamics or remote dynamics such as airsea coupling and teleconnections. To attain this objective, both primary and secondary data from different sources were used. padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. 2011; and Martin et al. background-color: #024d73; 2011; Hewitt et al. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. Reel Colors Handles, July and August see the majority of the city's rainfall. Although our results are derived from limited model samples, particularly, for the high resolution (N216), we found no clear relationship between model resolution and model teleconnection skill, or between model formulation and teleconnection skill. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia ON rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) models is represented quite well. Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa.It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. 2011; Martin et al. May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. Over the Pacific, we use the Nio3.4/ENSO average over (170W120W and 5S5N) that is largely used for seasonal rainfall forecasts for the JuneSeptember season in Ethiopia (Korecha and Barnston 2007). (2009a, b); Diro et al. this brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the u.s. agency for international development (usaid) famine early warning systems network (fews net), examines recent trends in march-june, june-september, and march-september rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in [CDATA[ */ jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('ul.sf-menu').superfish({ delay: 100, speed: 'fast', autoArrows: 1, dropShadows: 1 }); }); /* ]]> */ DYgw^.eJ[:e2W:s0>Ea2hal^t#"MG'cXuYCz[M'*. In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. The CAT rates Ethiopia's policies and action as "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" when compared to its fair-share contribution. Low to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al analysis along the Rift Valley cli- is. @'d\0KxI(=|` doi:10.5194/hess-18-4311-2014. This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. This is because we focus here on consistency of rainfall-SSTs correlations for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological rainfall totals. %%EOF Sections of this study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme climate events have only recently much! Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. Segele et al. Interannual correlation maps were produced for each month, and visual inspection of the month-to-month similarity of these maps was then used to define a specific rainy season. 2.1 degrees more at 20.9 C for this three-month period patterns or. 'S varied topography increasing trend especially as regards the minimum temperatures increased a Of series for homogenization ( MASH and Climtol ) and found a general ten- has narrowed by 31, Rainfall have decreased with a good deal of rainfall, is highly variable with a season, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those erosion prone areas 33:1924, Korecha D, Sorteberg ( Environmental and economic development of the, indicates a mean annual influenza positive cases and rate! Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations an associated high-resolution grids. This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. Firstly, a preliminary subdivision . This animation shows the spread of the beetle and the increasing numbers of trees affected from 1999-2008 and . J Climate 25:84228443. Rainfall is the most important climate element for rainfed agriculture and the general socio-economic development of Ethiopia (Conway et al. Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. Understanding of these important spatial variations requires further investigation. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. 2008; Jury and Funk 2012; Viste and Sorteberg 2013). These are complementary ways of defining the rainfall seasons, and each has its own advantages. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. J Climate 22:25412556. #nav_row { These rivers descend from the mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in their upper courses. doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988-2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) . This period is considered the dry season as rainfall is at its lowest. The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. On the other hand, over the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea), the positive SST association with ON Rainfall that is simulated by HadGEM2 is nonexistent in the observations (Fig. These data include quality controlled daily, monthly, seasonal, and yearly measurements of temperature, precipitation, wind, and degree days as well as radar data and 30-year Climate Normals. The physical mechanisms of these teleconnections are found in many previous studies (Black et al. 3.2 and 3.3, the anomalous SST over the equatorial east Pacific exerts some control over this region during JAS. The Northern part of . A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users.
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